Abstract Detail


Janssen, Eric [1], Zaya, David [2], Molano-Flores, Brenda [3].

Using Robust Design Models to Assess Colonization and Extirpation Probabilities of Forest Plants in Illinois.

Over the last 50 years decreases in sensitive native plants along with increases in non-native and ruderal native plants have led to biotic homogenization throughout forests in the Midwestern USA. Understanding the drivers of these extirpation and colonization rates can help land managers preserve forest diversity. One issue with estimating these rates is the imperfect detection of plants which can inflate estimations of colonization and extinction, while deflating estimations of site occupancy. One method to estimate colonization, extirpation, and occupancy probabilities while incorporating imperfect detection is a “robust design occupancy model”. We used this model to estimate these probabilities for 429 herbaceous forest plant species in Illinois. Forest sites (84 upland, 40 floodplain) were surveyed four times with five years between surveys from 1998-2017. We evaluated the influence of 11 landscape-level and site-level factors on colonization, extirpation, and occupancy probabilities. Plant richness, mean coefficient of conservatism, agriculture cover, and forest cover were particularly important in determining plant occupancy in both forest types. Agriculture and forest cover also played an important role in colonization and extirpation probabilities. Overall, the landscape-level and site-level factors often had an influence on occupancy (~75%) and less so on colonization (~27%) and extirpation (~35%).  Under the right circumstances, robust design occupancy models can be used to estimate colonization and extirpation probabilities while incorporating imperfect detection for plant species. The use of these models will help the management of species at large spatial scales by simultaneously giving estimating occupancy, colonization, and extirpation probabilities, and the factors influencing these rates.

Related Links:

1 - Illinois Natural History Survey, 1816 S Oak Street, INHS, Forbes Building, Champaign, IL, 61820, US
2 - University of Illinois, Illinois Natural History Survey, 1816 S Oak Street, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA
3 - University Of Illinois, Illinois Natural History Survey, 1816 South Oak Street, Champaign, IL, 61820, United States

temperate forest
Robust Design Occupancy Model.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: ECO3, Ecology 3: Weeds, Exotic and Invasive Plants, Restoration Ecology, and Research Natural Areas
Location: Virtual/Virtual
Date: Wednesday, July 29th, 2020
Time: 3:30 PM
Number: ECO3003
Abstract ID:116
Candidate for Awards:None

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